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Heisman Trophy Dark Horses
2010-08-17
The Heisman Trophy is unique because oftentimes, the winners come from virtually nowhere to have amazing seasons. Just last year, Mark Ingram won the award after virtually nobody talked about him as a preseason contender. Here are some dark horses who could have amazing years and walk away with the trophy:
Jake Locker- Locker may be this year’s version of Tim Tebow: a dual-threat quarterback capable of scaring teams just as much with his legs as with his arm. He has incredible speed and his rushing stats of 338 yards and seven touchdowns would have been much higher had his coach given him more carries. He improved greatly as a passer last year, throwing for 2,800 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions with his rocket arm. Locker stayed in school rather than potentially being taken with the number one overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft and is determined to lead his team to a bowl game for the first time since he’s been there. The Heisman is often predicated on team success and if Locker can put up Tebow-esque numbers and lead his team to eight or more wins, he may become the first Heisman winner in the history of the University of Washington. www.sportsbook.com has Jake Locker at a +1200 to win the Heisman this year.
Jacquizz Rodgers- Rodgers is one of the most dynamic players in the country, a running back who gets it done as a rusher and receiver. As impressive as his 1,440 rushing yards and 21 rushing touchdowns were last year, his ability to catch 78 passes for over 500 yards out of the backfield is perhaps more impressive and unusual for a running back. The Pac 10 is wide open this year and Rodgers’ Heisman hopes would get a tremendous surge if his Oregon State Beavers were to prevail in a tough division.
Jacory Harris- Harris was the centerpiece last year on a much-improved Miami team. He orchestrated important drives in some big upsets, especially early in the season against Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Oklahoma. He put up big numbers, throwing for over 3,300 yards and 24 touchdowns. Harris has the poise and talent needed to continue his vast success, but the one improvement he’ll need to make is to limit his mistakes. He threw 17 interceptions last year, far too many for a potential Heisman winner. If he can become more consistent and limit his spurts of bad play, he should become a bona fide Heisman contender. With his penchant for clutch play, he could deliver some game-winning drives that would sear him into the conscience of Heisman voters.
Dion Lewis- Lewis may have been the best true freshman in the country last season, surpassing all realistic expectations with nearly 1,800 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. He saved his best performances for last, rushing for over 150 yards in each of Pittsburgh’s last four games. He’ll carry this momentum into the upcoming season on a Pitt team that won ten games and is poised to win The Big East and a spot in the BCS. If he can separate himself from the herd of elite running backs and his team lives up to the expectations, he’ll be in the thick of the conversation.
Ryan Williams- Virginia Tech’s Williams is another standout underclassman running back. Although a redshirt, he turned heads with a forceful season last year after not even being expected to start. He ran for 1,655 yards and showed a penchant for finding the end zone, scoring 21 rushing touchdowns. Williams should expect his quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, to continue to mature and take some of the burden off of him. Williams scored 10 touchdowns and had a combined 420 yards in Tech’s last three games last season. If he can continue this pace and play well in his team’s nationally televised opening game against Boise State, he should get lots of early attention that may last.
Andrew Luck- Stanford’s Luck is getting tons of attention from the NFL and scouts are raving about his ability and potential. However, if he wants to grab the attention of Heisman voters, he’ll need to make up for the loss of Toby Gerhart, his running back and the Heisman runner-up last year. Defenses will be focused on Luck but he has proven to be incredibly poised, throwing only four interceptions last year and leading the Pac 10 in passing efficiency while at the helm of the Cardinal. Although Gerhart is now gone to the NFL, Luck has one of the best receiving duos in the country with Chris Owusu and Ryan Whalen. Luck complements his passing ability with a running ability that is a threat to all defenses. Although only a redshirt sophomore, recent history has shown that underclassmen can win the Heisman. Luck would be the fourth straight sophomore to win the award. At +1500 at www.sportsbook.com to win the Heisman Andrew Luck might just be that Dark Horse that could net you a big win.
NFL: INDIANAPOLIS at MIAMI (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-09-21
Former divisional rivals will square off on Monday night football when Miami hosts Indianapolis. The Colts are off to 1-0 start while Miami lost its opener. That turn of events has led oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com to install Indy as a 3-point road favorite, a price most bettors (89% of them) have been willing to pay. It’s another Monday night of football on ESPN and Sportsbook. Be sure to check in at the LIVE ODDS page to see all of tonight’s wagering options.
These teams haven’t met since 2006 and the Colts have won the last two head-to-head contests, but overall, Miami owns an 8-4 SU & 9-3 ATS edge in the L12. The Dolphins, who have been awful at home overall with a 3-13-1 ATS record the last two seasons, will be looking to snap a 3-game SU & ATS skid in home openers. They turned the ball over four times in Atlanta this past Sunday while losing 19-7. The Colts meanwhile thoroughly outplayed Jacksonville, but won just 14-12. They are 8-1 ATS in their L9 coming off a win/no cover spot. Indy is also 9-1 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in its L10 September road games and 15-8 ATS in its L23 as road chalk of 3-points or less.
Since Peyton Manning became a rookie in 1998, the Dolphins have had 14 starting quarterbacks in that same span and have never really found a long-term heir apparent to Dan Marino. While Miami has gone through the likes of Jay Fiedler to A.J. Feeley to Trent Green, Manning, meanwhile, has recorded nine 4,000-yard passing campaigns and tossed 334 regular-season touchdown passes.
With Marvin Harrison gone, all the attention has been put on Anthony Gonzalez and his impending breakout season. Gonzalez, however, injured his knee in a 14-12 win over Jacksonville and is out at least six weeks. Still, Reggie Wayne (10 catches, 162 yards, one touchdown) should be able to make some big plays downfield against a Miami secondary that was the weak link in 2008.
Defensively, Indianapolis will look to Freeney and fellow end Robert Mathis to pressure Chad Pennington and contain Pat White. The Dolphins were notorious with their “Wildcat” offense last year and White will make the unit even more dangerous. However, defenses will dare Pennington and his weak arm to beat them long.
Many pundits feel Miami will take a step back in 2009 after a mind-boggling turnaround a year ago, thanks to the inspired play of Pennington and the vocal Joey Porter on defense. Whether the 19-7 loss to Atlanta is an indication that the so-called “know-it-alls” are right remains to be seen.
Miami is hoping the third year is a charm for Ted Ginn Jr., who was drafted in the first round in 2007, but has played like a third or fourth rounder. Ginn Jr. was also taken for his return capabilities, but his statistics actually declined in his sophomore season after a respectable rookie campaign.
PREDICTION
The Colts will want to show the transition from Tony Dungy to Jim Caldwell will be no big deal, while Miami wants to prove 2008 under Tony Sparano was no fluke. Don’t be surprised if this game gets decided late in the fourth quarter and Adam Vinatieri has the final say. INDIANAPOLIS 24, MIAMI 23
NFL: Baltimore at Miami (1:00 PM ET, CBS)
2008-12-31
Teams with identical won-lost marks meet Sunday, and strangely, the visitor is the 3-point favorite. It could have something to do with the Ravens being 12-4 ATS on the season opposed to 8-8 by the Dolphins, or the fact that Baltimore won in Miami in October, 27-13. HC John Harbaugh’s team is hot, having won five of its L6, both SU & ATS. They are all about defense, ranking in the Top 3 in the NFL in scoring, yardage, and yards per play. However, they do boast a strong running game too, 149 RYPG. The Dolphins strength is on offense, 5.9 YPP. The game’s top trends finds MIAMI 16-36 ATS vs. good rushing teams averaging >=130 RYPG since 1992. Amazingly, this will be the 7th time since 2000 that these clubs meet in Miami, with the hosts having won four of six.
What a difference a year has made for these two teams. Last January the Dolphins and Ravens were in the market for new head coaches after a tough campaign that saw them finish 1-15 and 5-11, respectively. This January they’re meeting in an AFC wild-card game after winning 11 games apiece. Miami’s rise from the ashes is movie-making material. With rookie head coach Tony Sparano, new quarterback Chad Pennington, a healthy Ronnie Brown and a rejuvenated Ricky Williams, and without defensive fixtures Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor, the Dolphins captured their first AFC East championship since 2000 by defeating the Jets last Sunday, 24-17. A legitimate MVP candidate, Pennington completed 67 percent of his passes for 3,653 yards and 19 touchdowns with seven interceptions. Brown and Williams combined for 1,575 yards rushing and 14 scores, and linebackers Joey Porter (17.5 sacks) and Channing Crowder (122 tackles) regained respect for a defense that was on the field for 48 touchdowns in 2007.
Baltimore, which happened to be Miami’s lone victim a year ago, hired John Harbaugh to replace Brian Billick as head coach, brought in Cam Cameron as offensive coordinator (yes, the same guy fired as head coach of the Dolphins last Jan. 3) and gave the keys to rookie quarterback Joe Flacco.
The Ravens were sitting at 2-3 when they visited Miami in Week 7. That’s when most of the pieces started to fall into place. Flacco passed for 232 yards and a touchdown, Willis McGahee ran for 105 yards and a score and Terrell Suggs brought back a Pennington interception 44 yards for a touchdown to highlight a 27-13 victory. Pennington threw for 295 yards, but the ground attack managed just 71 yards on 22 carries. It was the start of a four-game winning streak for Baltimore, which also won seven of eight with the only loss coming to the Giants in the finale of a three-game road swing.
A 27-7 win over Jacksonville in Week 17 put the Ravens in the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. Flacco has managed the offense well, and the fact Baltimore outrushed opponents by more than 1,000 yards helped his cause. McGahee and Le’Ron McClain (1,573 yards, 17 touchdowns) will be a handful for the Dolphins.
PREDICTION: The Fish are one of the best feel-good stories ever. It’s the first time in NFL history a one-win team qualified for the playoffs the following season, and Pennington’s experience outweighs that of Flacco by a mile. The bigger difference is on defense, where the Ravens will prove too tough to crack. BALTIMORE 16, MIAMI 10
NFL: INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (8:30 PM, ESPN)
2008-10-24
The week 8 MNF matchup is an intriguing divisional battle in which the old dog will be attempting to put up one last fight to hold its position as king of the hill. The Colts are already three games down to the 6-0 Titans in the AFC South race, and a win by Tennessee could represent the passing of the baton. Almost 60% of early bettors as of presstime were backing the Titans at Sportsbook.com.
Indianapolis will have some trends playing in its favor though, specifically 9-1 ATS under HC Tony Dungy vs. good defensive teams allowing <=14 PPG, and 8-0 ATS in its L8 games vs. teams winning more than 75% of their games. However, the Titans have played their best in division play (12-2 ATS L14) and are allowing just 11 PPG. The favorite is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in the L9 games of this h2h series and the last six have gone UNDER the total.
As the surviving members of the undefeated 1972 Miami Dolphins gather somewhere to watch this Monday night showdown between Tennessee and Indianapolis, they'll be pulling for the same franchise that two years earlier beat them out for the AFC East division title and went on to win Super Bowl V.
The Colts, who started 7-0 last season, 9-0 in 2006 and 13-0 in '05, are off to their slowest start in four years with a 3-3 mark through six games. But a win on the road against the undefeated Titans would not only allow those linked to the '72 Dolphins to pop a few corks, it would let everyone know the five-time defending AFC South champions aren't about to give up their perch without a fight.
Tennessee is the only other team to win the AFC South since its inception in 2002, and though the Titans managed a wild-card berth as runners-up to Indianapolis in '03 and a third-place finish a year ago they have their sights set on the top spot.
In what was a trap game last Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, the Titans kept their focus and rolled to a 34-10 victory over the rebuilding Chiefs. Rookie running back Chris Johnson (168 yards) and LenDale White (149) ripped Kansas City for 317 yards on the ground. Johnson now has 549 yards on 103 carries (5.3-yard per carry average).
Injuries have been a factor in the Colts' uncharacteristic start. Two-time, 1,000-yard rusher Joseph Addai sat out last week's 34-14 defeat in Green Bay with a knee injury suffered in the first quarter in Week 6. Though Addai scored four times in the first four games, he averaged only 53.5 yards per outing and 3.5 yards per carry. The Colts need him back healthy, albeit he doesn't have the greatest track record against the Titans with 199 yards in three full games.
The Colts won in Tennessee a year ago and led them in Week 17 when head coach Tony Dungy yanked most of his starters to prepare for the playoffs, where the Titans joined them after a gift win. The all-time regular-season series, including seven meetings between the Baltimore Colts and Houston Oilers, stands at 15-11 in favor of Indy.
PREDICTION: Tennessee is starting to resemble the Green Bay team on ’07, one that is winning games but not getting the respect it deserves from the oddsmakers. Still, even those types of clubs fail to cover spreads occasionally, and the way with which the Titans are winning games offers up a good matchup historically for the Colts. Look at this trend: INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 28.1, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 3*). The Titans have also been far from reliable as a home favorite of 3.5-7 points: 10-22 ATS. If the Colts have any fight left in them, they will bring it on Monday night. It could be their last chance to save ’08. This has the feel of a late field goal win either way. I’ll take the points and Peyton Manning. Play: Indianapolis +4
NFL: Let’s Talk NFL Football
2008-06-13
Many NFL experts believe the Giants blazed a new trail last year in the NFL by dominating the postseason with their pass rush and secondary. Several other teams have made changes to their rosters since to upgrade that area of their defense for ’08. How will these moves affect their posted win totals for the season?
With the passing game more prevalent than ever in the NFL, it is becoming increasingly more important teams have cornerbacks and safeties that can cover wide receivers in a variety of formations, as the last line of defense. As the Super Bowl champion New York Giants proved, rushing the passer is always the best medicine to keep a defense healthy, however, no matter how good any team’s pass rush is, they will not always be able to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks, placing the responsibility on the corners and the safeties to take on the onslaught.
The Oakland Raiders are Ov6 (-135) at Sportsbook.com in wagering for season wins in 2008, after winning a grand total of 10 games the last three years. What should give bettors hope of surpassing that total is having the best tandem of cornerbacks in the NFL, with Nnamdi Asomugha and newly acquired DeAngelo Hall. Asomugha only had one interception last year, largely due the fact teams didn’t even bother to throw to his side of the field, but with the super aggressive Hall, opponents are going to have to make a choice. It won’t fun for receivers trying to possibly exploit the Raiders safeties, with former Giant Gibril Wilson, a big hitting strong safety. Youngster Mike Huff is allowed to move to more natural free safety spot. If Oakland’s offense shows improvement for coach Lane Kiffen, .500 is not out of the question, if the front office doesn’t create more turmoil, as they often do.
The regular season matchups between Oakland and San Diego will delight every defensive backfield coach in the country. CB Antonio Cromartie proved he is a rising star in the league. He has long arms, big hands and exceptional closing speed to make plays or bat away passes. His running mate is Quentin Jammer, who doesn’t intercept many passes, but is a sticky cover guy. For teams that want to go after San Diego in the nickel, say hello to top pick Antoine Cason. Eric Weddle will be a new starter at safety and is a superior all-around athlete and Clinton Hart plays the run with reckless abandon. With what this contingent can do, the Ov10.5 (-150) might be less of a gamble.
Philadelphia for seasons has been able to stifle opposing offenses with tight cover schemes and bone-crushing hits from its secondary. After a couple of off seasons from this group due to injuries, the Eagles might be ready to soar once again. Philadelphia picked up a plum DB in Asante Samuel, one of the five best players at his position. He’ll be a good match with ballhawk Lito Shepard. For those thinking about the Eagles at Ov.8.5, a return to health of Brian Dawkins would go a long way in making this a more relaxing wager. S Quinton Mikell is above average in the passing game and excellent versus the run.
Remember just a few years ago when if Indianapolis didn’t hurry the quarterback, their mildly vanilla defensive backfield schemes could be picked apart? Those days are in the rearview mirror, with the corner combo of Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson. Both have good size (6’0, 195) and are ideally suited to play in Tony Dungy’s defense. Backing them up is the best safety in football, Bob Sanders. The diminutive former Iowa Hawkeye is the ultimate enforcer, throwing around his body to make plays. Playing in the rugged AFC South makes the posted total of 11 wins a tough call either way, but should the Colts fall short, it won’t be because of defensive backfield.
The Miami Dolphins were hands-down the worst team in football last season with a 1-15 record. The atmosphere in South Florida is changing with Bill Parcells running the show. This is a team with few talented players and nothing is more glaring than in the defensive backfield. In grading the corners and safeties separately, the only team even close to being this awful is New Orleans. Head coach Tony Sparano has expressed faith in corner Will Allen, yet he has to swallow hard with the thought of lining up Travis Daniels or Andre Goodman on the other side. Yeremiah Bell is an injury-prone safety and the rest of the group is only known to team officials and the player’s parents. Given the choice of Over/Under 5.5 on the Dolphins based on secondary play, only one wager makes sense.
NFL - Buffalo at Jacksonville (1:00 PM ET – CBS)
2007-11-23
Buffalo has to strap em’ back up after the humiliating 56-10 loss to the Patriots, as it faces a critical test in its quest for a playoff berth Sunday in Jacksonville. The Jaguars hold the top AFC Wildcard spot after the win over San Diego, two games ahead of the Bills.
Jacksonville is a heavy 8-point favorite, but the visitors are 13-6 ATS as dogs under HC Dick Jauron. Jack Del Rio’s team is just 4-3 SU & 1-6 ATS in its L7 home games when favored by a touchdown or more. For this series, the Bills own a 4-1 SU & ATS edge in the last five games, including a 27-24 win in Buffalo a year ago. In a rare post-division rival trend, Buffalo is 14-1 ATS in its L15 games after facing New England, a fact that could prove prudent after the shellacking.
The Bills should rank as one of the positive surprises of the 2007 season, finding their competitive nature despite a roster that lacks star recognition and proven leadership abilities. The defense has been loaded with youth and has battled various injuries yet the yardage numbers surrendered (easily ranked among the worst in the NFL) fail to result in scores (allowing less than 20 points per game). On offense, a surprising offensive line has allowed rookie RB Marshawn Lynch to excel, an aspect that has helped an inconsistent pass attack.
The Jags have been a mystery yet enjoy a winning record. The numbers fail to justify those results. The defense allows nearly 350 total offensive yards per game and is especially inept against the pass, yet scoring is kept to a respectable 18 points per game. On offense, the team thrives off the rushing efforts of veteran Fred Taylor and young phenom Maurice Jones-Drew while instability due to injury at QB has yet to prove as worrisome as one might guess.
Keys to the Game – This is a Chumbawumba “Tubthumping” contest that fits both teams. The refrain – I get knocked down, but I get up again, you’re never going to keep me down – seems quite fitting. Buffalo has overcome a 1-4 start and is in playoff contention thanks to a young and active defense that has picked up the offense on numerous occasions. The Bills are 14-1 ATS after facing New England. Jacksonville has overcome the loss of their starting QB and half of the best defensive tackle duo to be in similar position. In November, the Jaguars are 7-0 ATS when favored against team .500 or better.
Trends
Buffalo is 13-5 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.
Jacksonville is 34-1 ATS when they win against a team that is .500 or better.
StatFox Pick – Jaguars minus points